I have such fond memories of Arc Sundays. This year, I won't be going along but the first Sunday of October represents the end of summer and the start of winter for me, an ex-Parisian ex-pat who goes back to 98 and Sagamix. I remember Sakhee, Dalakhani, Bago, Hurricane Run and what on earth happened last year with Dylan Thomas? I still haven't understood that one - but some day the system has to break!
This year's Arc looks like it will be huge - there's massive money on offer, and an array of talented 3-year olds that would make the Derby blush.
Duke of Marmalade has never lost a group one, and has been storming up the betting. Indeed, he should soon be challenging the French filly Zarkava for favouritism some time soon at this rate - but I have to underline that this race runs true to form 8 times out of 10 - and last year's victory by Dylan Thomas was a blip.
- The winner is a 3 year old - The winner is a colt - The winner has also won the Prix Niel, raced in September - The winner is usually unbeaten - The winner has been trained in France
8 times out of 10 this will happen - and it worked for me 8 times out of 10. Remember Rail Link's brilliant victory ahead of Youmzain? He was a 3-year old French-trained colt. Hurricane Run the previous year? Ditto. Bago several years beforehand? Ditto.
This year, we have one prime contender who fits all of these criteria - Vision d'Etat - and he is worth 8/1 with some bookmakers. Now that's an amazing price for a race that runs so true to form you can call it 80% of the time.
However, most years, you won't see a filly like Zarkava. Zarkava is unbeaten and won the Prix Vermeille recently at Longchamp with some style. This is one hell of a filly, and all eyes will be on her as she is bound to start off favourite unless the Brits really do pile their money on the Duke this Sunday.
For me, the race comes down to the two French horses I mentioned - and the challenges will come specifically from Soldier of Fortune, who looks to me to be a great Arc 4-year old and Youmzain, who has twice come second but now looks a little too old for this pacey race.
I say go for Vision d'Etat each way at 8/1 and Zarkava to win at 7/4. This could well be the filly's year and I'm afraid to say I won't be there to see it. Still, it's Arc Sunday, it's the first day of winter and it's still very, very special.
Tags: Horse Racing
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